Evaluation and measurement of Fiscal rules in Iraq and its impact on economic growth According to the Maastricht Treaty

Abstract

This research deals with the Fiscal rules in Iraq for the period 1993-2013, to match international standards in accordance to the Maastricht Treaty. The paper defines that the two variables (public debt / Gross domestic product, and relative stability in the exchange rate) may stay under standards and doesn’t hold to the international standard in its main standards, surplus, deficit, the interest rate, or inflation.

The Econometric analysis we used in this paper are the annual data during the period from 1993 to 2003. The importance of this research comes from the need for the introduction  of Fiscal rules in effect on the GDP, to this have employed a gradient of Autoregressive distributed lag models economitric (ARDL) to investigate the effect on GDP, It results obtained, it’s a positive long-term significance of the rate of inflation and GDP in response, also there is a long-term change in the exchange rate response, and not long-term change in response to interest rate, Surplus or deficit budget / GDP, public debt / GDP.

Keywords: Cointegration ; Fiscal rules in Iraq ; ARDL; bounds test; Iraq.